CEMENT

[:ru]Пинатель Арно[:en]Pinatel Arnaud[:] [:ru]начальник департамента строительных материалов и строительства компании «EXANE BNP PARIBAS», Франция[:en]head of Building Materials & Construction at «EXANE BNP PARIBAS», France[:]

Alitinform №3 (10) 2009 г. 10-15 p.

Abstract

In the article below, we have summarized our main thoughts about our scenario for the world cement industry in 2009 and 2010.

We are still expecting a sharp decline in global construction output in 2009 and particularly in residential construction activity. Based on leading indicators (permits) we highlighted the deteriorating outlook in the US and Europe, and the risk that the weakness in new residential construction activity might spread to other construction categories. In emerging markets, we highlighted the overall slowdown of construction markets created by the global financial crisis.

We remain cautious about overall demand trends because visibility remains poor. We forecast further weakness for the residential and non-residential construction markets in 2010. However, construction markets should also start to benefit next year from the impact of the various infrastructure stimulus packages that have been announced by several governments.

The quick drop of utilisation rates and the record historical energy cost inflation in the recent past was a main concern for operating margins across the different building materials and products segments, especially in countries or businesses where pricing power was limited. The pressure on margins in 2009 reflects the projected fall in construction activity in mature markets, a marked slowdown in several developing countries and higher cost inflation, particularly in H1 2009. We expect the pressure on margins to be particularly acute in H1 2009 as volumes have been adversely affected by the global credit crisis and exacerbated by the bad weather conditions in Europe and the USA.